Autor: Kami Höferl

Thinking about Evidence and Risk

Speaker: Professor John Worrall This event was recorded on 5 November 2009 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House In this lunchtime series of lectures, a selection of LSE’s academics from across the spectrum of the social sciences explain the latest thinking on how social scientists work to address the critical problems of the day. They survey the leading ideas and contributions made by their discipline, explain the types of problems that are addressed and the tools that are used, and explore the kinds of solutions proposed. Available as: mp3 (12 MB; approx 50 minutes) via Public Lectures and Events: podcasts – Podcasts – LSE.

Risk-Based Regulation: Rethinking from a Lawyers‘ Perspective

Speaker: Professor Robert Baldwin, Julia Black This event was recorded on 25 February 2010 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House In this lunchtime series of lectures, a selection of LSE’s academics from across the spectrum of the social sciences explain the latest thinking on how social scientists work to address the critical problems of the day. They survey the leading ideas and contributions made by their discipline, explain the types of problems that are addressed and the tools that are used, and explore the kinds of solutions proposed. Available as: mp3 (25 MB; approx 53 minutes) Editors note: The last few minutes of the Question and Answer session are missing. via Public Lectures and Events: podcasts – Podcasts – LSE.

Risk as Feeling: New Perspectives on Risk Perception

Speaker: Dr Paul Slovic Chair: Dr Adam Oliver This event was recorded on 11 November 2010 in D202, Clement House Dr. Slovic will describe the laboratory experiments that led to the concept of risk as feelings and illustrate some insights gleaned from this perspective for behaviors as diverse as cigarette smoking and apathy toward large scale natural and human caused disasters. Dr. Slovic studies judgment and decision processes with an emphasis on decision making under conditions of risk. His work examines fundamental issues such as the influence of affect on judgments and decisions. For further information visit Dr. Slovic’s website: www.decisionresearch.org Available as: mp3 (40 MB; approx 64 minutes) Editor’s note: We apologise for the poor audio quality of this podcast. via Public Lectures and Events: podcasts – Podcasts – LSE.

Trying to Quantify Uncertainty

Speaker: Professor David Spiegelhalter Chair: Professor Anthony C Atkinson This event was recorded on 17 November 2010 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House There has been a traditional division between ‚risk‘, which can be quantified using probability distributions, and ‚uncertainty‘, which is the surrounding mess of doubt, disagreement and ignorance. Spiegelhalter will use examples from swine flu to climate change to illustrate different approaches to dealing with uncertainty, from ignoring it to trying to fully quantify it, and conclude that we should all try to be aware and open about the magnitude and potential consequences of our ignorance. David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge as well as senior scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit. Available as: mp3 (30 MB; approx 63 minutes) Editor’s note: We apologise for the poor audio quality in the question and answer session of this podcast. via Public Lectures and Events: podcasts – Podcasts – LSE.

Elinor Ostrom on resilient social-ecological systems

Given rapid changes in large-scale human and biophysical processes — carbon emissions, population increase and migrations, over-harvesting and pollution leading to loss of species — many scientists are worried that many of the social-ecological systems existing today may collapse by the end of the 21st century. Is this an exaggerated worry? The thesis Ostrom will present is that the negative prognosis will indeed occur in many parts of the world if we do not worry a great deal about these processes and their consequences.More important than simply worrying, however, is the development of a strong diagnostic method for analyzing the diversity of processes and the multiplicity of potential social and bio-physical solutions that are needed to cope effectively with these varied processes. via Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Untätigkeit als eine erprobte Strategie – und warum man sich darüber nicht wundern sollte

In einem Artikel im Standard widmet sich der ehemalige Chef der UN-Umweltprogramms Klaus Töpfer dem Dauerthema eines verbindlichen internationalen Abkommens zur Klimapolitik. Cancun und das was dort (nicht) stattfinden wird, findet also auch seinen Weg in die Österreichische Medienlandschaft. Und das klingt dann so: „Der Abschluss eines verbindlichen internationalem Abkommen ist aus Töpfers Sicht derzeit jedoch nicht absehbar. Der weltweit größte CO2-Emittent China habe zwar eingesehen, dass er seine Energieeffizienz deutlich steigern müsse und gehöre bei den erneuerbaren Energien bereits zu den führenden Nationen. Die Volksrepublik werde ihre Klimaziele aber „sicherlich nicht in eine völkerrechtlich verbindliche Vereinbarung einbringen“. Auch in den USA sei die notwendige Mehrheit für verbindliche und überprüfbare Klimaschutzzusagen nicht zu erwarten.“ Da denkt man sich doch, dass er natürlich Recht hat, der Herr Töpfer, mit dieser Einschätzung. Realistisch gesehen ist die Chance, dass sich China und Amistan bewegen werden sehr gering. Womit auch an dieser Stelle ein offen zutage liegender Gemeinplatz angebracht worden wäre. Vermeintlicher Themensprung: Jared Diamond hat sich in seinem Buch “Collapse. How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” 2005 …

Risiko – eh klar, oder?

Zur Frage, was aus Sicht österreichischer RaumplanerInnen Risiken und Gefahren ausmacht, habe ich von Anfang bis Mitte 2008 eine zweistufige Befragung von 62 PlanungsexpertInnen durchgeführt. Um dabei sowohl eine Innen- als auch Außensicht auf raumplanerische Risikovorsorge zu erhalten, wurde der ExpertInnenpool aus den LeiterInnen der Landesraumplanungsabteilungen für örtliche Raumplanung sowie Regionalplanung (26 Personen), privaten PlanerInnen (18 Personen) und VertreterInnen diverser Fachplanungen sowie der Wissenschaft (18 Personen) gebildet. Die letztegenannte Gruppe umfasste dabei  10 ExpertInnen der Schutzwasserwirtschaft –  Bundeswasserstraßenverwaltung, Bundeswasserbauverwaltung (BWV) sowie der Forsttechnischen Dienstes für Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung (WLV) – sowie 8 VertreterInnen österreichischer Forschungseinrichtungen. Im Rahmen einer zweistufigen Quick-Delphi Befragung () konnte in der ersten Runde mit 32 Antworten eine Rücklaufquote von 52% und in der zweiten Runde mit 34 Antworten eine Rücklaufquote von 55% erzielt werden. Welche potentiell gefährlichen Ereignisse und Prozesse sind nun aus Sicht der ExpertInnen Bestandteil der raumplanerischen Risikolandschaft? Hierzu wurden die ExpertInnen gebeten anzugeben, welche Risiken bzw. Gefahren Handlungen der Raumplanung erfordern. In der untenstehenden Wordcloud wurden die Nennungen zu dieser Frage größenproportional zu ihrer absoluten Häufigkeit dargestellt: Betrachtet …

Bottled water – Or: The power of discourse (again)

Flipping through Garry Petersons´s blog on  Resilience Science I stumbled across the topic of bottled water. Watching “The story of bottled water” I felt a bit ashamed (yes I bought bottled water): Plastic made out of finite oil, waste tourism and the manipulation of society by economic interests: After spending three minutes on a YouTube search I  felt better, when I found an environmentally sensitive spokesperson from Nestle, assuring me I did the right thing: By the way, thanks Nestle for offering me water as “healthy alternative, with zero sugar, calories or caffeine”. What astonishes me is the distance of just a few clicks between two very different discoursive positions and the space between them: the classical show off between eco- and business-talk. The heavy use of we-them narratives (le bien, le mal) to contrast oneself (good) with the opponent (bad) reminded me again of the power of frames produced in discourses: „Framing is a way of selecting, organizing, interpreting, and making sense of a complex reality to provide guideposts for knowing, analyzing, persuading and …

Vulnerability-based policy learning?

An abstract in preparation for a meeting in Boulder, Colorado: Vulnerability-based policy learning? On the interplay of coping arrangements, vulnerabilities and losses in community‐based flood management By William R. Freudenburga and Karl-Michael Höferlb a … Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Barbara b … ILEN, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna The floods of 2002 in large parts of Europe and in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina 2005 in the USA revealed the vulnerability of developed countries to floods. So far different approaches on vulnerability assessment have been used to provide a basis to (re‑)design/enforce flood adaptation and mitigation strategies. This conception of a vulnerability-based policy learning unfolds itself along an (unspoken) rationalistic assumption: the higher the existing vulnerabilities and losses due to past floods, the higher the pressure to redesign/enforce flood adaptation and mitigation strategies. In contrast statements like “knowing better and losing even more” document clearly, that this rationalistic assumption is not indisputable. A group of scholars, recruiting itself out of a variety of disciplines, advocates therefore a rather …